A Tale of Two Markets: Inventory Mismatch Paints a More Detailed Picture

A Tale of Two Markets: Inventory Mismatch Paints a More Detailed Picture | Simplifying The Market

The inventory of existing homes for sale in today’s market was recently reported to be at a 3.6-month supply according to the National Association of Realtors latest Existing Home Sales Report. Inventory is now 7.1% lower than this time last year, marking the 20th consecutive month of year-over-year drops.

Historically, inventory must reach a 6-month supply for a normal market where home prices appreciate with inflation. Anything less than a 6-month supply is a sellers’ market, where the demand for houses outpaces supply and prices go up.

As you can see from the chart below, the United States has been in a sellers’ market since August 2012, but last month’s numbers reached a new low.

A Tale of Two Markets: Inventory Mismatch Paints a More Detailed Picture | Simplifying The Market

Recently Trulia revealed that not only is there a shortage of homes on the market in general, but the homes that are available for sale are not meeting the needs of the buyers that are searching.

Homes are generally bucketed into three groups by price range: starter, trade-up, and premium.

Trulia’s market mismatch score measures the search interest of buyers against the category of homes that are available on the market. For example: “if 60% of buyers are searching for starter homes but only 40% of listings are starter homes, [the] market mismatch score for starter homes would be 20.”

The results of their latest analysis are detailed in the chart below.

A Tale of Two Markets: Inventory Mismatch Paints a More Detailed Picture | Simplifying The Market

Nationally, buyers are searching for starter and trade-up homes and are coming up short with the listings available, leading to a highly competitive seller’s market in these categories. Ninety-two of the top 100 metros have a shortage in trade-up inventory.

Premium homebuyers have the best chance of less competition and a surplus of listings in their price range with an 11-point surplus, leading to more of a buyer’s market.

“It leaves Americans who are in the market for a home increasingly chasing too fewer options in lower price ranges, and sellers of premium homes more likely to be left waiting longer for a buyer.”

 Lawrence Yun, NAR’s Chief Economist doesn’t see an end to this coming any time soon: 

“Competition is likely to heat up even more heading into the spring for house hunters looking for homes in the lower- and mid-market price range.”

Bottom Line

Real estate is local. If you are thinking about buying OR selling this spring, let’s get together to discuss the exact market conditions in your area.  Give me a call – J.P. Cook – 602-320-4253.

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2841 Thunderbolt Circle Overgaard, AZ 85933

$1,500,000
4 Beds
3 Baths
4,032 SqFt
Status Active Under Contract
MLS # 6669701
Property Type Single Family Residence
Price Type --
Motivated Sellers!! Attention all discerning buyers seeking a luxurious escape in the breathtaking White Mountains - get ready to be amazed! Step into this exquisite home nestled in the coveted Mogollon Airpark (AZ82) and prepare to be swept off your feet. Boasting a spacious 4032 sq ft interior with a stunning modern update, along with a 2304 sq ft hangar, this property has everything you've been dreaming of. The living space is perfect for entertaining, with a loft/apartment above the hangar providing ample room for family, guests, or even rental income. Indulge in the luxury of two dining areas, a kitchen island that seats 10, and a private balcony with sweeping views from your large primary suite featuring a steam shower, soaking tub, fireplace, and... coffee/wet bar. The hangar, 48' x 48' (43' opening), w/a Schweiss hydraulic door, plus an extended 3 car garage, and additional workshop space, offers plenty of room for your plane, vehicles, and hobbies. Enjoy direct Taxiway access for ultimate convenience. Mogollon Airpark (AZ82) is a vibrant private airport community with a 3436' asphalt runway, hosting exciting events like BBQs, happy hours, breakfast fly-ins, and soon, a Pickleball court! Located in Heber/Overgaard at 6658' elevation, just 90 nautical miles northeast of Phoenix, you'll experience mild summers and winters. The area is ATV-friendly, with forest access roads and lakes for fishing less than 30 minutes away in every direction. Don't miss out on this incredible opportunity to live the high-flying lifestyle you've always wanted!

12910 N 103rd Place Scottsdale, AZ 85260

$1,500,000
5 Beds
3.5 Baths
3,833 SqFt
Status Active Under Contract
MLS # 6768871
Property Type Single Family Residence
Price Type --
Prime opportunity to own a piece of Scottsdale's Cactus Corridor in a tranquil 10 home community. Nestled at the end of a cul-de-sac, the home boasts 3833 square feet of living space with 5 bedrooms, 3.5 bathrooms and 3 car garage. Situated on nearly an acre, the home offers Camelback Mountain views from the expansive southwest facing backyard with ramada, pool, bocce ball court and built-in barbeque. With its ideal location, expansive lot and thoughtfully designed layout, this property embodies Scottsdale's lifestyle with easy access to modern conveniences, serene mountain vistas and a welcoming community ambiance surrounding. Discover the appeal of living in the Cactus Corridor first-hand. An incredible opportunity at $375,000 below appraisal value.

1822 E Palmaire Avenue Phoenix, AZ 85020

$1,500,000
4 Beds
3.5 Baths
3,339 SqFt
Status Active Under Contract
MLS # 6743671
Property Type Single Family Residence
Price Type --
Experience modern luxury in this exceptional 4-bedroom, 3.5-bathroom home with an office space, nestled among new custom homes valued over $2 million. This home perfectly combines energy efficiency and contemporary luxury, featuring owned solar panels, an EV charger, and a solar heated/cooled pool. Enjoy four outdoor seating areas, a gas fireplace, and breathtaking mountain views, ideal for year-round relaxation and entertainment. The home is filled with premium upgrades like Thermador appliances, Moen faucets, and granite/quartz countertops. Located in a quiet cul-de-sac with no HOA fees, this property offers both privacy and style. Explore more of what this home offers: a spacious office, elegant bidets in three bathrooms, Sierra Pacific windows and doors, and extra-deep cabinets for ample storage. This unique, non-cookie-cutter design ensures you'll stand out in a community of high-end homes. Enjoy the convenience of built-in pest control stations and close proximity to hiking trails, Piestewa Peak, and a canal. Don't miss this exceptional opportunity to live in luxury!

5124 N 10th Way Phoenix, AZ 85014

$1,500,000
5 Beds
4.5 Baths
3,809 SqFt
Status Active Under Contract
MLS # 6748714
Property Type Single Family Residence
Price Type --
**PRICED UNDER APPRAISED VALUE!!** Tucked in a private enclave of new Luxury homes by Thomas James Homes. This 5 bed, 4.5 bath, modern style home comes complete with an open concept split floorplan and an attached private entry casita featuring a bedroom, bath and a home office or gym. The design of the home is perfect for entertaining, with a gourmet kitchen featuring high-end stainless-steel appliances, quartz countertops, and a massive island. The home has a very large great room, and floor-to-ceiling windows that flood the space with natural light. Retreat to the spacious grand suite, complete with a spa-like bathroom and large walk in closet. The three additional bedrooms are generously sized and offer ample closet space. The lush backyard is complete with patio and swimming pool. A very large upstairs bonus room offers additional family living space. A bike ride away from Luci's at the Orchard, Rokerij and minutes from the 51, close to the Valley's best schools, including Brophy and Xavier.

18140 W Marshall Court Litchfield Park, AZ 85340

$1,500,000
4 Beds
4.5 Baths
3,896 SqFt
Status Active Under Contract
MLS # 6737384
Property Type Single Family Residence
Price Type --
Brand New Beautiful Custom Home In Lovely Gated Community!! This custom built home was crafted with high end features from construction to cosmetics. 4 bedrooms, 4.5 bath, en suites in every room. Additional office space, plus another game room/theatre room/bonus room. High end gourmet kitchen with custom cabinets. Beautifully landscaped exterior and interior with firepit, spa and pool! Marble entryway, 16 ft wide by 10 ft high sliding door, oversized garage with 14 ft RV gate. Enjoy this private community close to mountain trails, while still conveniently located next to a variety of shops, restaurants, and freeway access! Definitely a must see!!

8561 E Cactus Wren Circle Scottsdale, AZ 85266

$1,500,000 - 4Br/4Ba -  for Sale in Boulder Ridge, Scottsdale
Open House
$1,500,000
4 Beds
4 Baths
3,484 SqFt
Status Active
MLS # 6765691
Property Type Single Family Residence
Price Type --
Highly upgraded gem with stunning views in gated community of Boulder Ridge. Enter thru a charming courtyard into an open common area with 14' ceilings, fireplace, and bar set between family room and home theater. Kitchen offers chiseled edge granite, large island, stainless steel appliances, stained shaker cabinets & walk-in pantry. Interior upgrades include sun screens throughout, central vac, and stained cabinets in baths, den & laundry to match the kitchen. Spacious master suite has dual walk-in closets & sink areas. At over 2/3 acre, the oversized lot offers privacy and generous space from the neighbors. The oasis backyard features pebbletec pool, spa, gas fireplace, built-in BBQ and exterior poolside bathroom. Large upper deck with traditional stairway offers 360deg mountain & city light views, along with power & lighting for entertaining. Besides that view deck, what sets this home apart from nearly all in the neighborhood... 4 car garage, with one bay offset with a secondary laundry, perfect for woodshop or secluded storage. Priced to sell quickly!

9363 E Superstition Mountain Drive Gold Canyon, AZ 85118

$1,500,000 - 3Br/3Ba -  for Sale in Superstition Mountain, Gold Canyon
Open House
$1,500,000
3 Beds
3 Baths
3,497 SqFt
Status Active
MLS # 6671612
Property Type Single Family Residence
Price Type --
SPECTACULAR Mountain and Desert views. This open floor plan is an entertainers DREAM for both inside/outside living! Built in 2023, you will love this exquisitely designed estate with its earth tone palette. Gourmet kitchen fit for a chef with abundant cabinet space with a charging station, gas range with pot filler, breakfast area and large pantry. Indoor/outdoor bar. Huge master suite on east wing features picturesque views, MASSIVE his and her closets and a COLOSSAL walk in shower. Separate entry bedroom with kitchen amenities perfect for visitors or to be used as a mother in law suite. Exercise/hobby room easily could be converted to 4th bedroom. Dramatic and tranquil front courtyard paired with the backyard bide for a year round OASIS. This gated golf course community is a MUST SEE

18208 W Happy Valley Road Wittmann, AZ 85361

$1,499,999 - 4Br/4Ba -  for Sale in Meets & Bounds, Wittmann
New
$1,499,999
4 Beds
3.5 Baths
3,476 SqFt
Status Active
MLS # 6788960
Property Type Single Family Residence
Price Type --
Incredible home sitting on a 1.25-acre lot! This fully fenced property features an RV gate, a 3-car side garage with an extended driveway, & plenty of parking space. Inside, you'll find a large living room, formal dining room, & double-door den, providing endless entertainment possibilities. Durable tile flooring & recessed lighting throughout the home! The kitchen showcases a center island w/prep sink, a breakfast bar, SS appliances, wood cabinets, granite counters, walk-in pantry, & a breakfast nook. Retreat to the split main bedroom with French doors to the backyard, wood-style flooring, & an ensuite w/two vanities, soaking tub, & walk-in closet. Walk out back to your own Desert Oasis! BBQ pit, pool, & your own custom bar! Discover the unmatched beauty that this home has to offer! One secondary bedroom includes a bathroom ideal for a guest quarter. The entertainer's backyard boasts a covered patio, a detached enclosed bar w/soft carpet, wood-accented walls, & multi-sliding doors, a covered outdoor pergola w/built-in BBQ & fire pit, a pool w/bar, & plenty of room for play & grow. Be the proud owner! Hurry!

8619 N 192nd Avenue Waddell, AZ 85355

$1,499,999
3 Beds
3 Baths
3,485 SqFt
Status Active
MLS # 6724959
Property Type Single Family Residence
Price Type --
This custom-built home is located at the base of the White Tank Mountains in the prestigious Sonoran Ridge Estates. It is a stunning, well-maintained 3-bedroom 3-bathroom home that blends modern luxury and serene living. Nestled on a spacious 1.4-acre lot with breathtaking views of the White Tank Mountains from the front with a peaceful, unobstructed, dwelling-free natural landscape from the rear. This property provides a unique opportunity to enjoy the best of Arizona's natural beauty while close to schools, shopping, and thoroughfares. As you step inside, you'll be greeted by a bright and open floor plan with high ceilings and large windows that flood the space with natural light. The gourmet kitchen is a chef's dream, featuring top-of-the-line stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, a large center island with a cooktop, a built-in warming station, and more than ample cabinet space. The adjoining dining area and living room are perfect for entertaining guests or enjoying family time. Special touches include artistic ambient theater-like ceiling lighting, whole house music speakers, and a living room with a dramatic back-lit custom-built interpretation of the nearby White Tank Mountains! The master bedroom suite is a true retreat with a walk-in closet and an en-suite bathroom that includes 2 separate sinks and cabinets, a large jacuzzi soaking tub, and a large, tiled snail shower. The additional 2 bedrooms are generously sized and offer plenty of closet space. There's also a large executive office with 2 built-in desks, multiple built-in cabinets, and shelving that can easily support any in-home business. The office also has a built-in Murphy bed that can be used for guests or as a 4th bedroom. Step outside to your gorgeous fully fenced private backyard oasis. It has 2 covered patios, lush mature landscaping, and a built-in stone island featuring a gas barbecue, sink, and refrigerator. Walk down the lighted grand staircase that leads to a low-temperature concrete walkway and a large custom-built saltwater swimming pool. Additional features of this exceptional home include a large three-car garage with a dedicated workspace for auto and hobby enthusiasts, a laundry room with storage, and energy-efficient upgrades. Located in a peaceful neighborhood with convenient access to schools, Arizona state Route 303, shopping, dining, and recreational activities like the newly opened restaurant The Corral which offers music events and delicious food. Once outside the estate gates, the entrance to the White Tank Mountains Regional Park is a few minutes up the road. Visitors can hike, walk on dog-friendly trails, view ancient petroglyphs, and view hundreds of species of plants and animals that include thousands of gorgeous flowering Sonoran Saguaro cactus. This is the perfect place to call home. Don't miss out on the chance to make this beautiful property yours!

34642 N 52nd Street Cave Creek, AZ 85331

$1,499,995
2 Beds
2 Baths
1,935 SqFt
Status Active
MLS # 6753929
Property Type Single Family Residence
Price Type --
LOCATION ! LOCATION ! LOCATION ! Beautifully updated Home on 2.5 acres in the charming fun town of Cave Creek! Walk to Starbucks, restaurants, shopping and Golf..So convenient !! While still enjoying the luxury of your own ranch..Horseback Riding, biking and hiking trails take you into the Cave Creek Preserve from your driveway! Room for all your Horses and a spot ready to build a full size Roping Arena(with engineered plans) Features a brand new never been used Gourmet Chefs Kitchen TOP of the line appliances including a ZLINE natural gas range. Fantastic fenced backyard with a sparkling blue pool all ready for your finishing touches. New Flooring with southwest flair, Natural stone fireplace/gas insert. Make this your Winter Resort destination or Stay all year!!

3743 E Hazelwood Street Phoenix, AZ 85018

$1,499,995
3 Beds
2 Baths
2,167 SqFt
Status Active Under Contract
MLS # 6756925
Property Type Single Family Residence
Price Type --
Premium lower Arcadia opportunity on Hazelwood. Well cared for three bedroom and two baths plus office sits on 11,966 square foot lot including mature landscaping, large pool, barbeque area and a finished casita. Wonderful master suite with huge dual shower and walk in closet. Situated in one of the most desirable neighborhoods in Phoenix. Large .27 acre private lot is mid-block with no alley. Full remodel and addition completed in 2011 on this 2,167 sq ft home. This is a rare opportunity for a buyer to purchase a move-in ready home on Hazelwood at this price point. Otherwise, its a prime lot for a custom home.

14437 N Valencia Drive Fountain Hills, AZ 85268

$1,499,995
3 Beds
3.5 Baths
2,573 SqFt
Status Active
MLS # 6717380
Property Type Single Family Residence
Price Type --
This popular Marden floorplan is ready to move in this fall. This home offers 2 bedrooms in the main house, separate office plus an attached casita for guests and a 3 car garage! Open concept floor plan is great for entertaining with sliding glass door to covered patio for indoor outdoor living. The kitchen boasts a huge island, Wolf appliances including 36'' cooktop and double ovens with 48'' Sub-Zero refrigerator. Enjoy the ambiance of the 60'' liner fireplace in the great room. Luxurious primary suite includes spacious walk-in closet, bathroom has dual vanities, walk-in shower and separate soaking tub. Imagine enjoying the upcoming holiday season in this amazing home!

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