A Tale of Two Markets: Inventory Mismatch Paints a More Detailed Picture

The inventory of existing homes for sale in today’s market was recently reported to be at a 3.6-month supply according to the National Association of Realtors latest Existing Home Sales Report. Inventory is now 7.1% lower than this time last year, marking the 20^th consecutive month of year-over-year drops.

Historically, inventory must reach a 6-month supply for a normal market where home prices appreciate with inflation. Anything less than a 6-month supply is a sellers’ market, where the demand for houses outpaces supply and prices go up.

As you can see from the chart below, the United States has been in a sellers’ market since August 2012, but last month’s numbers reached a new low.

Recently Trulia revealed that not only is there a shortage of homes on the market in general, but the homes that are available for sale are not meeting the needs of the buyers that are searching.

Homes are generally bucketed into three groups by price range: starter, trade-up, and premium.

Trulia’s market mismatch score measures the search interest of buyers against the category of homes that are available on the market. For example: “if 60% of buyers are searching for starter homes but only 40% of listings are starter homes, [the] market mismatch score for starter homes would be 20.”

The results of their latest analysis are detailed in the chart below.

Nationally, buyers are searching for starter and trade-up homes and are coming up short with the listings available, leading to a highly competitive seller’s market in these categories. Ninety-two of the top 100 metros have a shortage in trade-up inventory.

Premium homebuyers have the best chance of less competition and a surplus of listings in their price range with an 11-point surplus, leading to more of a buyer’s market.

“It leaves Americans who are in the market for a home increasingly chasing too fewer options in lower price ranges, and sellers of premium homes more likely to be left waiting longer for a buyer.”

 Lawrence Yun, NAR’s Chief Economist doesn’t see an end to this coming any time soon: 

“Competition is likely to heat up even more heading into the spring for house hunters looking for homes in the lower- and mid-market price range.”

Bottom Line

Real estate is local. If you are thinking about buying OR selling this spring, let’s get together to discuss the exact market conditions in your area.  Give me a call – J.P. Cook – 602-320-4253.

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921 N 297 Drive Buckeye, AZ 85396

$630,000

4 Beds

2 Baths

1,896 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6748283

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

Home on over an acre of land, built in 2022 4bedrooms 2bathrooms split floor plan, with a two car garage. NO HOA

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15632 N 51st Street Scottsdale, AZ 85254

New

$630,000

3 Beds

2 Baths

1,570 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6786530

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

Gorgeous New Upgrades! Comfort meets modern style in this beautiful home in Paradise Manor at the desirable magic zip code of 85254. Offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bath 2-car garage & direct access and views of the greenbelt. Fabulous interior vaulted ceilings, brand new paint, modern light fixtures & over $40K in NEW windows & doors. Large living & dining room with fireplace and a bay window! The fully equipped kitchen boasts brand new quartz counters, refinished cabinetry, a breakfast bar & a cozy nook. Main bedroom has outdoor access & a remodeled ensuite with dual sinks, custom tiled step-in shower & a walk-in closet. Private yard & lovely views of the greenbelt & no neighbor behind. Owned solar lowers electric bills. Water heater from 2022, New oven, microwave & stove in 2024! WOW!

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57 N Roadrunner Road Apache Junction, AZ 85119

$630,000

4 Beds

3 Baths

2,086 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6775561

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

Your Arizona Dream Awaits! Nestled on over 1 acre, this stunning property features a 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home, plus a casita, perfect for guests or additional space. Complete with a horse setup and million-dollar views, this home offers the ultimate Arizona lifestyle. Imagine sitting on your back patio, watching the sunrise, or waiting for the moon to rise from the East. The interior boasts vaulted ceilings and a desirable split floorplan, providing privacy and a spacious feel. With plenty of room for parking and the serenity of being away from it all, this property is ready to become your desert retreat.

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2057 E Marquette Drive Gilbert, AZ 85234

$630,000

4 Beds

2 Baths

2,142 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6772728

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

Rare remodeled single-story home with 4 bedrooms and a 3-car garage in desirable Val Vista Lakes! This open-concept home features soaring vaulted ceilings, a cozy fireplace, and a beautifully remodeled kitchen with stone countertops + farmhouse sink. Mix up your favorite beverage at the custom coffee/wet bar with mini fridge. Updated bathrooms add a fresh, modern touch. Outside, enjoy the large covered patio, mature trees, and low-maintenance artificial turf. Huge additional space to add your own pool / shop or other backyard entertainment. Lots of parks and trails just steps away. Perfectly located near the 60, downtown Gilbert, Epicenter and the Riparian Preserve. Don't miss this opportunity to own a stunning home in a prime location with desirable VV Lakes amenties and low HOA.

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10908 W Sieno Place Avondale, AZ 85392

$630,000

5 Beds

3 Baths

2,869 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6780055

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

BEAUTIFUL LAKE FRONT HOME in highly desired GARDEN LAKES ESTATES! Private lake access, 5 bedroom, 3 bath, roof and upstairs ac replaced in 2018, three car garage, east side of home RV parking, breath taking vaulted ceiling entry, open concept kitchen, fireplace in family room AND MUCH MORE! Get your buyers in this home and they'll never leave!

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2739 E Sourwood Drive Gilbert, AZ 85298

$630,000

3 Beds

2 Baths

2,303 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6786360

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

This beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is in an unbeatable location that borders a common area on the side and with no neighbors behind for added privacy. Offering 2,303 sqft of spacious living, this home features large bedrooms, a den, and a bonus room for flexible use. The living room, complete with a gas fireplace, is perfect for relaxing in front of a warm fire, while the neutral interior paint tones, tile flooring, and big windows add to the bright atmosphere. The kitchen boasts beautiful granite countertops, walk-in pantry and an island. Outside, the covered patio opens up to a low-maintenance backyard with pavers, new artificial grass (2023) and new landscape lighting (2020). Fantastic upgrades include a new water heater (2024), new water softener (2024) and newer A/C (2020). Additional features include an alarm system and complete pest control update roof and exterior in 2023. This home is as functional as it is beautiful!

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4612 W Agave Avenue Eloy, AZ 85131

$630,000

2 Beds

2.5 Baths

2,208 SqFt

Status Active Under Contract

MLS # 6767045

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

You'll love this popular MIRAMONTE model on a private lot, built in 2020. This stunning home features 2 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, a den, and an extended 3-car garage. The kitchen boasts Quartz countertops, upgraded cabinets with under-cabinet lighting, a custom wine rack, RO system, stainless steel appliances, a Blanco granite sink, and pendant lights. The master suite includes a tiled walk-in shower and granite vanities, while the guest room offers a spacious en-suite with a tiled shower. Other highlights include wood flooring, 8-ft doors, and a separate single garage with its own entrance, 220 amp, epoxy flooring, and mini-splitter. The landscaped backyard features extended pavers and a 20x20 patch of real grass, perfect for pets!

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3509 E Morrow Drive Phoenix, AZ 85050

$630,000

4 Beds

2 Baths

1,994 SqFt

Status Active Under Contract

MLS # 6773219

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

This beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with a pool features soaring vaulted ceilings and an open, airy layout. Oversized windows fill the home with natural light, enhancing its inviting atmosphere. The kitchen features ample cabinet space and a cozy nook, while the primary suite includes a walk-in closet, dual sinks, a separate shower and tub, and a private exit to the backyard. Updated flooring and remodeled bathrooms add to the home's charm. Step outside to your personal oasis—a spacious, shaded patio overlooking a tranquil rock waterfall that flows into a sparkling pool. The built-in BBQ makes this outdoor space perfect for both relaxation and entertaining. Conveniently located just minutes from top-rated schools, golf courses, dining, shopping, and freeway access, this home combines comfort, style, and prime location. Don't miss your opportunity to make this stunning property yours!

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3721 E Navaho Street Sierra Vista, AZ 85650

$630,000

5 Beds

3 Baths

3,278 SqFt

Status Active Under Contract

MLS # 6771078

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

This palatial 3,278 sqft home offers the perfect blend of comfort and style, featuring 5 bedrooms, plus a den, a loft, and a guest house complete with a full bath and kitchenette. The extra-deep 3-car garage and RV parking provide ample space for toys and hobbies, while the expansive backyard is perfect for entertaining, with a heated pool and spa. The main floor boasts a lavish primary suite with a sitting room and large spa-like ensuite with a jetted tub and walk in shower. Upstairs, oversized guest rooms surround a spacious loft. A large laundry room with a laundry chute adds convenience. With brand new carpet, fresh paint, a new stove, plus a newer roof & water heater, and owned solar system, this home is truly impressive!

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917 W Mcdowell Road Phoenix, AZ 85007

$630,000

4 Beds

2 Baths

1,922 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6787378

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

Embrace the timeless charm of this red-brick and block transitional ranch home, ideally located in the highly sought-after FQ Story neighborhood, known for its rich architectural character. This historic gem features original details such as 9-foot beveled ceilings, French doors, classic windows, and stained concrete floors. The living room's high-beamed ceilings and period wood-burning fireplace add warmth and elegance, complemented by a formal dining room with original built-ins. The spacious eat-in kitchen showcases a vintage gas range and a practical interior laundry area. With four sizable bedrooms, each offering cedar-lined walk-in closets, and two beautifully preserved bathrooms, this home provides both comfort and style. The oversized private lot is perfect for outdoo

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8866 E Shangri La Road Scottsdale, AZ 85260

$630,000

3 Beds

2.5 Baths

2,172 SqFt

Status Active Under Contract

MLS # 6778719

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

Located in the heart of Scottsdale, this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom plus loft home offers 2,172 sq. ft of living space. Step inside to find LVP flooring throughout, complemented by neutral paint that sets a welcoming tone. The kitchen is designed for both cooking and gathering, featuring granite counter tops, a gas range, stainless steel appliances, and subway tile backsplash. Upgraded lighting and sleek hardware add a modern touch. The flexible floor plan includes a bonus loft upstairs, ideal for a home office, play area, or workout space. The oversized primary bedroom includes a walk-in closet. Outside, enjoy the privacy and ease of a low-maintenance, lock-and-leave style yard. The home also offers direct access to the adjacent greenbelt park, perfect for pets or kids to run and play. Centrally located in the Shea Corridor with easy access to Scottsdale's top shopping and dining, plus Honor Health, Mayo Clinic and the 101 Freeway. This home is truly move-in ready whether you call Arizona your full-time home or a part-time escape.

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18031 N Buntline Drive Sun City West, AZ 85375

$630,000

3 Beds

2 Baths

2,247 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6765848

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

Welcome to our jewel in the desert. This home is situated on the corner of Parkwood Drive and Buntline Road. Located on the 16th green of the Pebblebrook golf course. Complete with your own private swimming pool, this home has recently had a complete new roof installed. This home has three bedrooms, an open kitchen complete with upgraded quartz countertops. You are invited to come and enjoy all the improvements done. Thanks very much. Professional photography taken Monday, October 7, 2024.

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