A Tale of Two Markets: Inventory Mismatch Paints a More Detailed Picture

The inventory of existing homes for sale in today’s market was recently reported to be at a 3.6-month supply according to the National Association of Realtors latest Existing Home Sales Report. Inventory is now 7.1% lower than this time last year, marking the 20^th consecutive month of year-over-year drops.

Historically, inventory must reach a 6-month supply for a normal market where home prices appreciate with inflation. Anything less than a 6-month supply is a sellers’ market, where the demand for houses outpaces supply and prices go up.

As you can see from the chart below, the United States has been in a sellers’ market since August 2012, but last month’s numbers reached a new low.

Recently Trulia revealed that not only is there a shortage of homes on the market in general, but the homes that are available for sale are not meeting the needs of the buyers that are searching.

Homes are generally bucketed into three groups by price range: starter, trade-up, and premium.

Trulia’s market mismatch score measures the search interest of buyers against the category of homes that are available on the market. For example: “if 60% of buyers are searching for starter homes but only 40% of listings are starter homes, [the] market mismatch score for starter homes would be 20.”

The results of their latest analysis are detailed in the chart below.

Nationally, buyers are searching for starter and trade-up homes and are coming up short with the listings available, leading to a highly competitive seller’s market in these categories. Ninety-two of the top 100 metros have a shortage in trade-up inventory.

Premium homebuyers have the best chance of less competition and a surplus of listings in their price range with an 11-point surplus, leading to more of a buyer’s market.

“It leaves Americans who are in the market for a home increasingly chasing too fewer options in lower price ranges, and sellers of premium homes more likely to be left waiting longer for a buyer.”

 Lawrence Yun, NAR’s Chief Economist doesn’t see an end to this coming any time soon: 

“Competition is likely to heat up even more heading into the spring for house hunters looking for homes in the lower- and mid-market price range.”

Bottom Line

Real estate is local. If you are thinking about buying OR selling this spring, let’s get together to discuss the exact market conditions in your area.  Give me a call – J.P. Cook – 602-320-4253.

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Sort by: Select Price, Low to High Price, High to Low Newer Listings First Older Listings First Open House Date

1350 E Gail Court Gilbert, AZ 85296

$629,000

4 Beds

3 Baths

2,237 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6775994

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

Move-in ready with countless upgrades including new AC, windows and can lighting! This modern single-family home boasts an open floor plan perfect for gatherings. The chef's kitchen showcases quartz countertops, shaker cabinets, and new appliances that brings both charm and modern appeal. Upstairs, a split floor plan separates the spacious secondary rooms from the primary suite. All bathrooms are upgraded with quartz countertops and chic laminate flooring. The backyard is an entertainer's dream, complete with a gazebo strung with lights, turf, and river rock. Every detail has been updated within two years! This home is ready to meet all your needs. Don't miss this opportunity to experience a truly exceptional property — it's a must-see!

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10011 E Lakeview Circle Mesa, AZ 85209

$629,000

3 Beds

2.5 Baths

2,960 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6785316

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

GREAT COMMUNITY VILLAGES OF EASTRIDGE! Original owner has pride in ownership of this one. Well maintained, move in ready home with a flex floor plan, cul-de-sac corner lot 4 bedrooms, upper loft, & lower-level den/office, guest suite alongside the master. Sparkling play pool & large yard, a 3-car extended garage, double RV gate. The open kitchen with an island bar, walk-in pantry flow into the family room for easy entertainment, with wood laminate floors on the lower level. Dual A/C units 2 years old. The interior has been freshly painted, & the exterior was recently painted as well. Other features include a large covered patio, backyard fire pit, 2 storage sheds, garage cabinetry with a workbench & storage shelving. Basketball sports court, parks, playgrounds, & quick access to freeways

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1371 N Alison Way Chandler, AZ 85226

$629,000

3 Beds

3 Baths

2,037 SqFt

Status Active Under Contract

MLS # 6754121

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

* CHANDLER STUNNER * PREMIUM CORNER LOT * FORMER MODEL * ACROSS FROM COMMUNITY POOL * LIKE LIVING IN A RESORT * LOFT-STYLE HOME * QUARTZ COUNTERS * STAINLESS APPLIANCES * UPGRADED CABINETS * OVERSIZED SLIDER * WRAPAROUND BALCONY * UPGRADED RAILINGS * LOFT WITH VIEWS * MASTER SHOWER WITH TILE SURROUNDS * CASITA WITH HALF BATH * VIEWS OF SOUTH MOUNTAIN * GET IT BEFORE ITS GONE! *

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8215 W Gardenia Avenue Glendale, AZ 85303

$629,000

4 Beds

2 Baths

2,643 SqFt

Status Active Under Contract

MLS # 6761936

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

Welcome to the home that checks every box! This stunning residence offers a spacious split floor plan with 3 bedrooms, a versatile den, and a large bonus room—ideal for work, play, or relaxation. You'll have plenty of parking for all your vehicles and toys, RV Parking plus a generous 3-car garage for additional storage. Inside, the open layout connects the gourmet kitchen, with premium appliances and ample counter space, to the sunlit great room and living room. Step outside to your own resort-style oasis featuring a private pool, patio, and beautifully landscaped yard—perfect for entertaining or unwinding. With owned solar, enjoy energy savings year-round!

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14104 W Cottontail Lane Surprise, AZ 85387

$629,000

3 Beds

2.5 Baths

2,444 SqFt

Status Active Under Contract

MLS # 6779366

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

Come explore this beautiful 3 bed 2 1/2 bath cul de sac home with a massive 17, 082 sq. foot lot to build your dream yard. This home has over $100k in upgrades including iron front door, large sliding glass doors in great room, extended covered patio, quartz contertops in kitchen and bathrooms, custom backsplash in kitchen, reverse osmosis water filtration for drinking water, gas line for outdoor kitchen, upgraded kitchen cabinets, additional cabinets throughout home, GE gourmet gas cooktop, additional electrical outlets added inside and outside the home, under cabinet lighting in kitchen, surround sound, free standing tub in primary bathroom and custom tile shower with rainshower head, additional insulation in ceiling, garage and plumbing walls, custom tile, new carpet and paint.

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3582 N 160th Avenue Goodyear, AZ 85395

$629,000

2 Beds

2 Baths

1,829 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6781415

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

LOCATION LOCATION LOCATION!! Sits on a very unique lot located in the highly sought after Tuscany side of Pebble Creek. This lovely and well cared for home sits on a very unique lot. Featuring 2 bedrooms plus a den, fresh interior 2 tone paint, UPDATED KITCHEN AND BATHS, granite counters throughout, custom plantation shutters, newly installed soft water system, 3 car garage with epoxy floor and built in cabinets, golf course views from the back AND front with neighbors on only one side!! PLUS, BRING US AN ACCEPTABLE OFFER AND WE'LL THROW IN THE GOLF CART, recently serviced with all new batteries!! MOTIVATED SELLERS BRING US AN OFFER!

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368 S 172nd Drive Goodyear, AZ 85338

$629,000

5 Beds

4 Baths

4,019 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6754016

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

Discover plenty of space and comfort in this stunning 5-bedroom, 4-bathroom Canyon Trails home. It features a gourmet kitchen with stainless steel appliances and center island, perfect for any cook. Enjoy privacy in the attached guest casita with its own living room and entrance. PRE-PAID Solar panels offer eco-friendly living and lowered electric bills for years to come. The backyard is an oasis with a private pool, huge extended covered patio, and BBQ area, all overlooking the community green belt with no neighbors behind. Plus, enjoy community amenities like a recreation room, parks, and community pool.

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1145 N 293rd Avenue Buckeye, AZ 85396

$629,000

4 Beds

2 Baths

2,067 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6758593

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

Discover the ultimate in custom home, unencumbered by HOA fees or regulations. This stunning new build ranch-style residence boasts 2,067 square feet of living space on a serene 1.2-acre lot. The sophisticated open-concept living area features stylish paneled walls, vaulted ceilings, and an abundance of natural light and recessed illumination. A sleek white kitchen, complemented by a spacious island, provides an ideal setting for culinary pursuits. The serene master suite offers a tranquil retreat, complete with a spacious en-suite bathroom and ample closet space. Three additional bedrooms provide versatility for family, guests, or a home office. The expansive, backyard, boasts block fencing valued at over $60,000, and dual RV gates, perfect for accommodating large vehicles or horses.

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6735 N 10th Street Phoenix, AZ 85014

$629,000

3 Beds

2 Baths

1,703 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6763810

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

Vintage meets contemporary in this delightful home in the heart of north central Phoenix. Remodeled in 2019 to add new A/C, electrical panel, and all new kitchen, complete with stainless steel appliances and soft close modern cabinetry. Tons of additional upgrades added over the last 3 years, including new epoxy sewer lining, lighting/fans, roman shades, paint, baseboards, contemporary black door hardware, storage shed, block fence, side gate & front door. Abundant natural light throughout the home through efficient dual-pane windows. Huge great room with vaulted ceilings and built in fireplace. Dreamy primary suite has 2 closets including a spacious luxury walk-in. Mature fruit trees grace the private, quiet back yard, with the perfect patio for entertaining. Top rated schools.

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535 S Barnwood Trail Munds Park, AZ 86017

$629,000

3 Beds

2 Baths

1,824 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6764043

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

Your private, dream home on large lot in the cool pines of Munds Park awaits your arrival! Rather year-round or seasonal, this spacious 3bed, 2 bath home has a/c, wood burning fireplace, 10x16 shed, carport, metal roof, upgraded flooring, bathrooms, ceiling fans, lighting, etc. Kitchen has plenty of cabinet and counter space, as well as an island. Enjoy relaxing on the large custom deck that was newly added on, with NO neighbor to the north! The yard is fenced in and perfect for your pets. No HOA. Come and be a part of this special, desirable Munds Park community! You will be walking distance to the well-known Pinewood Country Club, close to the national forest, lake, hiking/ biking trails, tennis and pickleball courts, park, restaurants, convenient store, and more. Munds Park is only 17 miles South of Flagstaff and a 2-hour drive from Phoenix to escape the heat. Come see your new home in our neck of the woods!

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2078 E Donner Drive Tempe, AZ 85282

$629,000

4 Beds

2 Baths

2,005 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6779043

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

Beautiful Corner Lot Home in the Heart of Tempe with Private Pool! No HOA! Welcome to this stunning 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home, perfectly situated on a spacious corner lot in the heart of Tempe. With its beautiful open floor plan and a large private pool, this home is an entertainer's dream. Inside, you'll find a modern kitchen with an inviting living area, and an enclosed laundry room for added convenience. Brand NEW AC and Brand New roof (2024). Enjoy the added benefit of no HOA! Located just minutes from ASU, major freeways, and an array of restaurants and shopping, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. BOOK a tour today.

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4318 E Smokehouse Trail Cave Creek, AZ 85331

$629,000

4 Beds

3 Baths

2,412 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6721909

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

Seller may consider buyer concessions if made in an offer. Welcome to this charming property that combines modern amenities with elegant charm. Recently updated with fresh interior paint and new flooring in parts, the neutral color scheme creates a calming atmosphere for all who enter. The kitchen is a cook's delight, featuring an inviting island and stainless steel appliances. Relax or entertain on the covered patio or enjoy privacy in the fenced backyard. This sought-after addition provides ample space for daily routines. From indoor comfort to outdoor luxuries, this property blends modern comfort with classic charm. If you seek a meticulously maintained home with exceptional attention to detail, don't miss the chance to make this beautifully updated property yours. It's the perfect plac

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