A Tale of Two Markets: Inventory Mismatch Paints a More Detailed Picture

A Tale of Two Markets: Inventory Mismatch Paints a More Detailed Picture | Simplifying The Market

The inventory of existing homes for sale in today’s market was recently reported to be at a 3.6-month supply according to the National Association of Realtors latest Existing Home Sales Report. Inventory is now 7.1% lower than this time last year, marking the 20th consecutive month of year-over-year drops.

Historically, inventory must reach a 6-month supply for a normal market where home prices appreciate with inflation. Anything less than a 6-month supply is a sellers’ market, where the demand for houses outpaces supply and prices go up.

As you can see from the chart below, the United States has been in a sellers’ market since August 2012, but last month’s numbers reached a new low.

A Tale of Two Markets: Inventory Mismatch Paints a More Detailed Picture | Simplifying The Market

Recently Trulia revealed that not only is there a shortage of homes on the market in general, but the homes that are available for sale are not meeting the needs of the buyers that are searching.

Homes are generally bucketed into three groups by price range: starter, trade-up, and premium.

Trulia’s market mismatch score measures the search interest of buyers against the category of homes that are available on the market. For example: “if 60% of buyers are searching for starter homes but only 40% of listings are starter homes, [the] market mismatch score for starter homes would be 20.”

The results of their latest analysis are detailed in the chart below.

A Tale of Two Markets: Inventory Mismatch Paints a More Detailed Picture | Simplifying The Market

Nationally, buyers are searching for starter and trade-up homes and are coming up short with the listings available, leading to a highly competitive seller’s market in these categories. Ninety-two of the top 100 metros have a shortage in trade-up inventory.

Premium homebuyers have the best chance of less competition and a surplus of listings in their price range with an 11-point surplus, leading to more of a buyer’s market.

“It leaves Americans who are in the market for a home increasingly chasing too fewer options in lower price ranges, and sellers of premium homes more likely to be left waiting longer for a buyer.”

 Lawrence Yun, NAR’s Chief Economist doesn’t see an end to this coming any time soon: 

“Competition is likely to heat up even more heading into the spring for house hunters looking for homes in the lower- and mid-market price range.”

Bottom Line

Real estate is local. If you are thinking about buying OR selling this spring, let’s get together to discuss the exact market conditions in your area.  Give me a call – J.P. Cook – 602-320-4253.

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6737 E Exeter Boulevard Scottsdale, AZ 85251

$7,995,000
5 Beds
7 Baths
6,876 SqFt
Status Active Under Contract
MLS # 6650382
Property Type Single Family Residence
Price Type --
This brand new custom home is a true showstopper. The amazing team at Caniglia Development has created an absolute masterpiece combining classic elegance with a modern vibe. The exceptional design, architectural excellence and superior construction will impress anyone with an eye for quality and style. The kitchen will be gorgeous with top-of-the-line appliances, oversized prep spaces and custom cabinetry, the great room will be exquisite with soaring ceilings and a chic fireplace, the office will make working from home the preference, the game room will be a perfect spot for kids and adults alike, and all the bedrooms and baths have their own unique elements including a breathtaking owner's suite with a spectacular bathroom. The grounds will be every bit as impressive as the home with

7044 E Cheney Drive Paradise Valley, AZ 85253

$7,994,900
5 Beds
5.5 Baths
6,564 SqFt
Status Active
MLS # 6422918
Property Type Single Family Residence
Price Type --
Spectacular Contemporary new home by Sonora West Development near its August 2024 completion. Total 6,564/s with a 5,595/sf main house and 969/sf guest house. The home includes 5.5 en-suite bedrooms including a large 2 room guest house which doubles as a pool house large enough for a pool table and seating. High-end appliances include Sub-Zero and Wolf. The circular paved driveway leads to spectacular water featured courtyard entry. Large covered patio and spectacular backyard with a Ramada, BBQ, fire pit, pool and spa. 4 car garage with gated entrance. No HOA.

10225 E Journey Lane Scottsdale, AZ 85255

$7,950,000
6 Beds
7.5 Baths
8,387 SqFt
Status Active
MLS # 6770389
Property Type Single Family Residence
Price Type --
Beautiful Silverleaf corner lot on Weiskopf championship course with stunning mountain views. Immaculate custom build with no expense spared. Home lives on one level with bonus entertaining den and patio, gym /office or guest upstairs while three ensuite bedrooms off a kids living room on opposing wing from master, office and full casita all live ground floor. Private U shape around the pool, perfect hole location to capture soaring green course but not get hit by any balls. Close to the Upper Canyon manned entry guard gate and five minutes from prestigious Silverleaf and DC Ranch Country Clubs. Rich limestone floors, marble counters, his and her closets and vanities, rich oak floors and light bright high ceilings. Formal dining and living, numerous entertaining patios and bars.

6440 E Stallion Road Paradise Valley, AZ 85253

$7,890,000
7 Beds
8.5 Baths
9,472 SqFt
Status Active
MLS # 6766106
Property Type Single Family Residence
Price Type --
Welcome to your dream oasis in the heart of Paradise Valley. This exquisite custom home on an ultra private cul-de-sac combines sophisticated design with unparalleled comfort, boasting almost 10,000 square feet of opulent living space. Featuring a total of 7 spacious bedrooms, 8.5 bathrooms, and 5 car epoxy garage, each room is meticulously designed with high-end finishes and attention to detail. The grand entryway greets you with a stunning flowing floor plan, perfect for entertaining. Enjoy gourmet cooking in the state-of-the-art kitchen, complete with top-of-the-line appliances, a large illuminated island, and custom cabinetry. The expansive living and dining areas are accentuated by soaring ceilings and panoramic windows that invite natural light and breathtaking views of the surrounding mountains. Step outside to over an acre of your private resort-style backyard complete with a 2 bedroom guest house with dual kitchens, a shimmering pool, spa, and stunning mountain views. The outdoor kitchen and fire pit provide the perfect setting for gatherings under the desert stars. Located in one of Arizona's most prestigious private neighborhoods, this home offers proximity to world-class dining, shopping, and golf courses, all while providing a serene retreat from the outside world. Don't miss this rare opportunity to own a piece of authentic Paradise Valley luxury.

6110 E Caballo Lane Paradise Valley, AZ 85253

$7,850,000
5 Beds
7 Baths
7,124 SqFt
Status Active
MLS # 6763087
Property Type Single Family Residence
Price Type --
This impressive very private gated 2.13 ACRE Cal Christiansen estate has 1.6 usable ACRES plus a ½ acre of golf course easement. The grounds feature a sunken tennis court (pickleball lines), pool w/ waterfall, spa, pizza oven, large grass area + garages for 10 cars. Including the separate guest house, there are 5 bedrms, 7 baths and 7,124 sf of luxurious living. Open + light w/ high ceilings, 5 fireplaces and attention to detail! The family rm w/ pub bar seamlessly connects indoor-outdoor living spaces via French accordion doors. A Car Collectors dream this temperature controlled garage w/shop has 16 ft vaulted wood ceilings + beams, 2 outdoor entrances and it also doubles as a party space!

9848 E Parkside Lane Scottsdale, AZ 85255

$7,775,000
5 Beds
8 Baths
7,801 SqFt
Status Active
MLS # 6763307
Property Type Single Family Residence
Price Type --
Almost a $1MM Price Improvement! Discover the allure of the boutique gated and guarded community of Arcadia at Silverleaf with this exquisite modern Spanish Colonial custom estate, nestled on a prime elevated corner lot overlooking one of Arcadia's iconic parks and showcasing panoramic McDowell Mountain views. Throughout the residence, modern Spanish influences are displayed in the form of bespoke tiles, stone and wood floors, exposed beam ceilings, limestone fireplace surrounds, modern LED lighting, designer wall coverings and meticulously crafted custom cabinetry. Spanning over 7,800 square feet, a true split floor plan with Primary Retreat and Guest Wing flanking the heart of the home. Voluminous central gathering areas flow openly to gracious living room, gourmet kitchen, theater, full-service bar, wine room, formal dining, and an airy curvilinear breakfast room with soaring ceilings and window-wrapped walls. Generous Primary Retreat Wing on main level with sitting area and romantic fireplace offers the ultimate luxury experience. Indulge in the spa-like amenities including free-standing lounge tub, oversized shower, dual water closets, two dressing rooms and a 2nd washer/dryer. Inviting Guest Wing comprises an upper level lounge and covered view patio, with 3 ensuite guest rooms and a main level attached multi-room casita. Beyond its aesthetic appeal, this residence transforms into an entertainer's haven. Revel in the best of Arizona luxury living with alfresco amenities including kitchen and bar pass-thru windows for outdoor entertaining, multiple covered patios for gatherings, enchanting fountains, fire features, a vast lawn expanse, and a sparkling saltwater spa and lap pool. An immaculate, timeless masterpiece with architecture and interior finishes by Candelaria Design. This is a distinctive property for the most discerning buyers. Home Highlights: 7,801 Square Feet - Split Floor Plan 0.53 Acre Elevated Lot - Park Side 5 Bedrooms 6 Full Baths; 2 Powder Rooms 9-Seat Theater Executive Office Private Fitness Room Curvilinear Breakfast Room with Soaring Ceilings Guest Wing Guest Lounge w/Covered View Patio Casita w/Private Den on Main Floor Gourmet Kitchen Butler Pantry & Café Bar Full-Service Bar with Passthrough Windows Control4 Saltwater Pool & Spa Expansive Grass Lawn Space Tranquil Entry Fountain 4-Car Garage Note: Upper level offers; executive office, fitness room, guest lounge with patio and 3 guest suites. All other rooms including the attached Casita are on the main floor. *Information provided by 3rd party is deemed to be reliable but it is not guaranteed. Recipient to verify all facts independently.

41477 N 95th Street Scottsdale, AZ 85262

$7,750,000
4 Beds
4.5 Baths
4,740 SqFt
Status Active
MLS # 6696330
Property Type Single Family Residence
Price Type --
Full Golf membership Available. Welcome to your slice of paradise in the prestigious Saguaro Forest at Desert Mountain! We are thrilled to present to you an exclusive opportunity to own a stunning home nestled along the 15th hole of The Chiricahua Golf Course. Imagine waking up to breathtaking views of the surrounding mountains and the lush greenery of the 15th fairway, all from the comfort of your own home. This large, acre-plus homesite offers elevated vistas and close-in views of the 15th green, ensuring both privacy and an abundance of open space. With a wide desert arroyo separating your homesite from the golf green, you can enjoy peace and tranquility while still being immersed in the beauty of the natural landscape. Construction has already commenced on this magnificent new build home, designed and built by the esteemed team at Graffin Design and Black Stone Development. This contemporary masterpiece boasts everything today's discerning buyers seek in a luxury residence. With a thoughtful layout that eliminates interior steps, the home features 4 spacious bedrooms, 4 ½ baths, an office, and a massive pantry that can pull double duty as a scullery. The heart of the home is the expansive great room, seamlessly connected to the outdoors through walls of glass and multi-slide door systems. Indulge your inner chef in the gourmet kitchen, equipped with the latest high-end appliances and cutting-edge finishes. From there, step outside to the patio, pool/spa, and outdoor kitchen, where you can entertain guests or simply unwind in the desert breeze. With construction well underway, there's still time to customize finishes to your liking and make this home truly your own. Whether you prefer sleek minimalist designs or cozy rustic touches, our team is here to bring your vision to life. And when you're ready to explore beyond your doorstep, Desert Mountain offers a wealth of recreational opportunities. Bike or hike along over 20 miles of multi-use trails, immersing yourself in the stunning Sonoran Desert landscape. Tee off at one of seven world-class golf courses, each offering its own unique challenges and breathtaking views. For dining and socializing, the Chiricahua and Cochise Geronimo Clubhouses are just a stone's throw away, offering gourmet cuisine and an array of social events. Stay active at the Sonoran community fitness facility, or pamper yourself with a relaxing spa treatment at the Desert Mountain Spa. With seven clubhouses and seven golf courses to choose from, you'll never run out of options for leisure and entertainment. Whether you're seeking outdoor adventure, culinary delights, or simply a place to unwind and relax, Desert Mountain has something for everyone. Don't miss out on this unparalleled opportunity to create your Desert Mountain dream lifestyle. Enjoy a private tour today and experience the beauty and luxury that await you in the heart of the Sonoran Desert.

8353 N 58th Place Paradise Valley, AZ 85253

$7,750,000
5 Beds
7 Baths
8,768 SqFt
Status Active
MLS # 6765153
Property Type Single Family Residence
Price Type --
This unique 8,768 sq ft villa is on a tranquil cul-de-sac adjacent to 5-acre estates. The lush grounds have flowering pots, multiple patios an expansive lawn, mature landscaping, a sport court + resort-style pool and spa. Step into luxury thru the grand foyer, where a black and white marble checkered floor and gilded staircase set the tone for the exquisite PARISIAN INTERIOR. Fabulous French handmade wallpaper, drapes, lace curtains + wood floors guide you through this home. The estate captivates with its unique architectural details + vaulted ceilings. The kitchen exudes the charm of an authentic Parisian bistro which opens to a mahogany paneled family rm with fleur-de-lis stained glass windows, a pub bar + a stone wine rm that seats 8. In 2014 an engineer drew a conceptual plan to add 2 more garages plus an art studio which might also be a total of 6 car garages. We've been informed they went to the town at that time for preliminary approval. Buyer to independently verify all information.

5842 E Redwing Road Paradise Valley, AZ 85253

$7,745,000 - 5Br/6Ba -  for Sale in Paradise Home Estates, Paradise Valley
Open House
$7,745,000
5 Beds
5.5 Baths
8,306 SqFt
Status Active
MLS # 6692132
Property Type Single Family Residence
Price Type --
Nestled between Mummy and Camelback mountains, this meticulously maintained estate showcases authentic Santa Barbara architecture and timeless design. Every detail created by skilled artisans, it features exquisite millwork and cabinetry - all crafted on site. Privately set on a tranquil Paradise Valley cul-de-sac, the home features a circular driveway, flowing fountain, gated entry courtyard with exposed terracotta roof tiles and red brick columns...reminiscent of the famed Royal Palms Resort. Ideal for entertaining, the chef's kitchen boasts dual islands of butcher's block and Carrera marble atop beautiful cabinetry, with ample seating for 12 and a spacious butler's pantry. The great room, adjacent to the theater with coffered ceiling and plush seating for 8, features hand-hewn trestle beams, a serving bar and wine room, which all flow into the central courtyard. Once outside, discover this charming outdoor space with a shimmering hand-tiled swimming pool, an outdoor kitchen, inviting seating areas with mountain views and a full guest casita. Unwind and relax in the custom spa that can seat up to 12 with cascading fountains from the pergola above. The primary suite features a coffered ceiling, sliding bookcase revealing a secret office, Cantera fireplace, a luxurious bath with dual vanity areas, custom tile, and two walk-in closets. The split floor plan includes three guest suites with en-suite baths and beautiful hand-painted tiles. The hand-painted domed ceilings in the formal dining room and nearby office complement the living room with its boxed barrel-domed ceiling and crystal chandeliers, offering stunning Camelback Mountain views. An oversized four-car garage with ample built-in cabinetry, native plants, fruit trees, and space for a pickleball court or putting green complete this pristine property.

10383 E Rising Sun Drive Scottsdale, AZ 85262

$7,700,000
6 Beds
5.5 Baths
5,814 SqFt
Status Active
MLS # 6727039
Property Type Single Family Residence
Price Type --
FULL GOLF MEMBERSHIP AVAILABLE - NO STEPS IN HOME. 5814 sq ft modern home completed in 2020 has walls of glass for seamless indoor outdoor living. 3 en-suite guest bedrooms plus a library/media room & large loft for grandkids. 3 Car Garage with addl 1 ½ bay for a rec room / man cave. A detached guest home with kitchen, living, 2 guest bedrooms, is perfect for when family or friends are in town. Entry water feature has a fire pit & ''floating'' walkway that leads to the entry door. 400 bottle climate controlled wine display at the dining room. Pocketing sliding glass doors in the great room open up to the resort style backyard with a 50 ft pool, deck fountains & spa. Ceiling heaters for winter & misters for summer, 2 firepits & 85'' TV make the backyard the ultimate entertaining space

7000 E Horseshoe Road Paradise Valley, AZ 85253

$7,699,999 - 5Br/6Ba -  for Sale in Rancho Sunny Vale, Paradise Valley
Open House
$7,699,999
5 Beds
5.5 Baths
6,500 SqFt
Status Active
MLS # 6783344
Property Type Single Family Residence
Price Type --
Welcome to MDF Development and Jewel Box Home's latest extraordinary residence in prime Paradise Valley, where luxury and timeless design converge. Situated on a sprawling and flat lot, this single-level, 5 bedroom home with a split floorplan offers high end design coupled with incredible landscape executed by Refine Gardens. The heart of the home is the gourmet kitchen, featuring top-of-the-line Sub Zero appliances and an exquisite European-inspired Ilve oven. With 5 ensuite bedrooms and 5.5 baths, each designed with meticulous attention to detail, this home provides the ultimate in privacy and convenience. The attached casita, complete with a small kitchenette, offers a private retreat for guests or could serve as a perfect in-law suite. As you explore further you'll discover a captivating family/game room with a bar and walk in wine room creating an ideal setting for entertaining. The possibilities are boundless with a vast lot that accommodates your vision for a pool house, tennis court, pickleball courts, or even a show garage. Whether you're dreaming of hosting grand events or seeking a tranquil escape, this residence invites you to turn your vision into reality. In the heart of Paradise Valley, this home seamlessly combines elegance and opportunity, creating a haven where luxury living meets your unique aspirations. Don't wait to see the endless potential and unmatched beauty of this remarkable property.

18720 N 101st Street Unit 2017 Scottsdale, AZ 85255

$7,680,000
5 Beds
5.5 Baths
5,534 SqFt
Status Active
MLS # 6782878
Property Type Apartment
Price Type --
The FINAL and much anticipated phase of the highly successful Icon project now available with construction well underway and estimated completion in 2025. This is not only an opportunity for extraordinary views and new construction , it also continues to be the best opportunity to be inside the gates of Silverleaf. ICON at Silverleaf offers an unlimited lifestyle with the lock-and-leave luxury of exceptional single-story flats amid the incomparable beauty of Arizona's McDowell Mountains. This rare and unique offering of spacious, open-concept residences affords the very best of all possible worlds, close to the cosmopolitan conveniences of affluent North Scottsdale, yet secreted within the pristine privacy of the Sonoran Desert behind the gates of the truly iconic upscale private

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