A Tale of Two Markets: Inventory Mismatch Paints a More Detailed Picture

The inventory of existing homes for sale in today’s market was recently reported to be at a 3.6-month supply according to the National Association of Realtors latest Existing Home Sales Report. Inventory is now 7.1% lower than this time last year, marking the 20^th consecutive month of year-over-year drops.

Historically, inventory must reach a 6-month supply for a normal market where home prices appreciate with inflation. Anything less than a 6-month supply is a sellers’ market, where the demand for houses outpaces supply and prices go up.

As you can see from the chart below, the United States has been in a sellers’ market since August 2012, but last month’s numbers reached a new low.

Recently Trulia revealed that not only is there a shortage of homes on the market in general, but the homes that are available for sale are not meeting the needs of the buyers that are searching.

Homes are generally bucketed into three groups by price range: starter, trade-up, and premium.

Trulia’s market mismatch score measures the search interest of buyers against the category of homes that are available on the market. For example: “if 60% of buyers are searching for starter homes but only 40% of listings are starter homes, [the] market mismatch score for starter homes would be 20.”

The results of their latest analysis are detailed in the chart below.

Nationally, buyers are searching for starter and trade-up homes and are coming up short with the listings available, leading to a highly competitive seller’s market in these categories. Ninety-two of the top 100 metros have a shortage in trade-up inventory.

Premium homebuyers have the best chance of less competition and a surplus of listings in their price range with an 11-point surplus, leading to more of a buyer’s market.

“It leaves Americans who are in the market for a home increasingly chasing too fewer options in lower price ranges, and sellers of premium homes more likely to be left waiting longer for a buyer.”

 Lawrence Yun, NAR’s Chief Economist doesn’t see an end to this coming any time soon: 

“Competition is likely to heat up even more heading into the spring for house hunters looking for homes in the lower- and mid-market price range.”

Bottom Line

Real estate is local. If you are thinking about buying OR selling this spring, let’s get together to discuss the exact market conditions in your area.  Give me a call – J.P. Cook – 602-320-4253.

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22693 E Saddle Way Queen Creek, AZ 85142

$583,990

4 Beds

3.5 Baths

2,623 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6740821

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

**This is a TO-BE-BUILT LISTING, this home is ready for personalization and can be built on your choice of homesite. This is an advertisement of our base price for this elevation and lot premiums may apply** Welcome to Ashton Woods newest community in Queen Creek - Madera Marquis - which features outstanding community amenities and convenient access to the 24 freeway and shopping. The open concept Jade plan features 3-car tandem garage, butler's pantry at the kitchen, 4 bedrooms and 3.5 baths, formal dining room with structural option to add a separate den, 12 ft slider and more! This home includes an open concept kitchen with granite countertops, 42'' upper cabinets, and stainless steel appliances. Amazing spa like primary suite with dual vanities and ample linen storage. This floorplan is accompanied by sizable secondary bedrooms and comes standard with 10' ceilings, front yard landscaping, paver driveway, dual sinks at primary bath, and much more! ~There is a minimum option spend requirement on new build homes, please reach out to the sales office for additional details.~

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20377 W Terrace Lane Buckeye, AZ 85396

$583,500

4 Beds

3 Baths

2,725 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6753236

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

This impeccably maintained 4 bedroom 3 bathroom home is located in the heart of the highly sought after Verrado community. Verrado boasts championship golf course, community facilities such as pool, community center, full gym, tennis, pickle ball courts., countless hiking paths and trails for all levels of hikers, the now famous stairs of Verrado, Main street area with restaurants, grocery store, coffee shop, and more. The interior of this home includes custom 2 tone paint, gourmet kitchen with staggered 42'' upper cabinets with crown molding, granite counters, stainless steel appliances, huge walk-in pantry, abundant storage through-out, 8ft interior doors, 10ft flat ceilings, private courtyard off dining room, huge owners suite w/en-suite bath including dual vanities, walk-in shower... and separate soaking tub, very large walk-in closet, there is a separate bedroom and full bath that is perfect for an in-law or guest suite. Well appointed backyard with fruit trees, grass area, paver walking paths and lounging area.

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28958 N 174th Lane Surprise, AZ 85387

$583,046

3 Beds

2.5 Baths

2,488 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6784946

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

Ready Jan/Feb 2025! Fantastic builder incentives w/preferred lender. Brand-new home in hidden oasis, nestled on an 8,190sf homesite with 13ft between neighbors for added privacy. This thoughtfully designed 1-story home features 3 beds + flex space, 2.5 baths, and 3-car tandem garage. Enjoy a layout with clear backyard views, perfect for entertaining or unwinding. The chef-inspired kitchen includes a large island, quartz countertops, 42'' upper cabinets, a wall oven/micro combo, cushion-close drawers, and walk-in pantry. Spacious dining and living areas create an inviting atmosphere. Each bedroom offers a walk-in closet, while the flex space adapts to your needs - office, media hub, gym, or playroom. The primary suite boasts a tiled shower and walk-in closet.

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2436 W Kachina Trail Phoenix, AZ 85041

$583,000

4 Beds

3.5 Baths

2,719 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6748418

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

Welcome home! Located in the desirable Southern Highlands, this stunning property combines modern upgrades with timeless comfort. This beautiful home has a RV gate and space for RV. The entire house features upgraded baseboards, casings, and custom header pediments, enhancing its architectural beauty. Throughout the home, enjoy new light fixtures (excluding the hall and guest bathrooms), and ceiling fans in key areas for added comfort. The office space is upgraded with new tile flooring, perfect for work or creativity. Additional renovations include two new toilets in the primary and guest bathrooms, a new dishwasher, and a sink disposal in the kitchen, ensuring functional elegance. The entire interior was freshly painted just a year and a half ago, giving the space a vibrant, new feel.. For security and style, all exterior entry handles and sets, including those in the primary bedroom, have been replaced and keyed alike. Also, this open layout includes tile charming archways, and a formal dining room ideal for entertaining. The great room, with its gas fireplace, invites relaxation. The kitchen is a chef's delight, featuring ample wood cabinets with a built-in wine rack, stainless steel appliances, granite counters, a desk, a walk-in pantry, and a center island with a breakfast bar. The primary bedroom boasts new laminate flooring and spacious walk-in closets, providing a private oasis. It also offers a private bathroom with dual sinks and a soaking tub. A large den provides flexibility as an office or studio. Garage also includes attached cabinets. Outside, the covered patio overlooks grassy areas and stunning mountain views, a perfect setting for relaxation or hosting gatherings. This gem is a masterpiece! Make it yours today!

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16873 W Fetlock Trail Surprise, AZ 85387

$582,997

5 Beds

3 Baths

3,241 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6766532

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

On the hunt for a new home? Here's a gorgeous and completed home in the heart of Sunrise. Don't wait for the builder - move in ready now! Very spacious Wrightson plan. This home is gorgeous and perfect for buyers looking for a highly upgraded kitchen and a large lot with 900 sq ft of gorgeous pavers waiting for you to entertain. Buyers spared no expense with the upgrades in the home - Soft closing drawers, smart ceiling fans, faux wood blinds, oversized pantry, coffee station option added, smart home technology, stone front elevation, double sized patio, double glass sliding doors, just to name a few. Assumable FHA current loan if buyer can meet the loan qualifications required to assume. This floorplan is no longer available, and home is almost new - don't miss out!

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16408 W Creedance Boulevard Surprise, AZ 85387

$582,995

3 Beds

2.5 Baths

2,500 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6647548

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

This gorgeous ranch-style Cassandra plan showcases an open layout with a great room, a breakfast nook and a large kitchen with multi-slide doors for fabulous natural light. Home includes a Master bedroom with generous closet, Deluxe bath with shower and tub. 2 more bedrooms, and a spacious den complete this home. Boasting Quartz kitchen countertops, 42'' cabinets and 6x35 Tile throughout, carpet only in bedrooms. A MUST SEE!

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12012 W Parkway Lane Avondale, AZ 85323

$582,995

3 Beds

2.5 Baths

2,480 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6741797

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

Explore this must-see Alden home, ready for quick move-in! Included features: a covered entry; a gourmet kitchen showcasing 42'' cabinets, quartz countertops, stainless-steel appliances, a center island and a roomy walk-in pantry; an open dining nook with center-meet patio doors; an inviting great room; a thoughtfully designed primary suite offering an oversized walk-in closet and a private bath with double sinks; three secondary bedrooms; two additional baths; a convenient laundry and a tranquil covered patio. This home also boasts impressive 10' ceilings, 9'' x 35'' stone tile flooring, cultured marble bath countertops, extra windows and ceiling fan prewiring in select rooms, front yard landscaping and concrete pavers at the walkway and driveway.

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20625 S 228th Place Queen Creek, AZ 85142

$582,990

4 Beds

3 Baths

2,234 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6764438

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

''The Sunflower floorplan is ideal for modern living, featuring an expansive kitchen with a large island, pantry, and generous dining and Greatroom areas, perfect for entertaining guests or enjoying quality family time. Step into this stunning quick move-in home, offering a thoughtfully designed 2234 sqft layout with 4 bedrooms, a guest retreat, 3 full bathrooms and 2.5 car garage. The home radiates elegance with finishes from the Coastal Collection, showcasing 6 x 36 Vicinity Natural plank tile floors in the main living areas, plush carpeting in the bedrooms, and stylish 42'''' Fairview White shaker cabinets adorned with polished Chrome hardware. The kitchen is truly a showstopper, featuring Della Terra Quartz - Crisp Stria countertops and Marazi Zellige Cielo 4x4 Brick Patterned tile backsplash, creating a seamless blend of luxury and functionality. Additional highlights include 8' doors throughout, adding to its refined appeal. The spacious Greatroom is accented by a 4-panel sliding glass door that seamlessly transitions to the covered patio and backyard, making it perfect for embracing indoor-outdoor living. This home is fully equipped with stainless steel appliances, including a gas range, microwave, dishwasher, and soft water loop. This Sunflower plan combines thoughtful design with elegant details, creating an inviting and meticulously finished space that is ready to welcome you home. This home is located across the park and is on a larger homesite.

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3216 S Piedra Avenue Mesa, AZ 85212

$582,990

5 Beds

3 Baths

2,233 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6786471

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

A collection of brand-new single-family homes located in the master-planned community in Mesa, AZ. The community feeds into the highly rated Gilbert Public School District, making this an ideal place for growing households. There are many onsite amenities at the masterplan everyone will enjoy, including a swimming pool, basketball court, pickleball court, playground and picnic area. Commuters have easy access to Loop 202 and Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport for travel accommodations. This beautiful home features our platinum package including Sonoma Maple Linen cabinets and quartz countertops. Super luxury 7 x 22 plank tile flooring. A public report is available on the Arizona Department of Real Estate website.

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16699 W Saguaro Park Lane Surprise, AZ 85387

$582,990

4 Beds

3 Baths

2,545 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6770961

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

Up to 3% of base price or total purchase price, whichever is less, is available through preferred lender. The Gardengate floorplan offers 4 bedrooms, 3 baths, a garage extension, and 8' interior doors. Notable features include built-in appliances, granite kitchen countertops, a gas stub in the kitchen, a backyard perfect for BBQs, and a gas dryer connection in the laundry.

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3752 E Terrel Street San Tan Valley, AZ 85140

$582,990

4 Beds

3 Baths

2,649 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6776075

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

Popular Trillium plan features a full guest suite with own private entrance. This home is situated in the amenity rich community of Bella Vista Farms. Residents enjoy an amenity-rich lifestyle with exclusive access to an onsite swimming pool, picnic area, splash park, playground, basketball court, volleyball court and greenbelt. The local area is host to the San Tan Regional Park, where locals enjoy biking, hiking, horseback riding and more. A public report is available on the Arizona Department of Real Estate website.

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17727 W Carol Avenue Waddell, AZ 85355

Open House

$582,990

4 Beds

3.5 Baths

3,222 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6772984

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

This Gorgeous NEW home has so much to offer! Primary bedroom on the 1st floor 3,222 square feet, 4 bedrooms, 3.5 bathrooms, loft, media room, a 3 car tandem garage on a North/south corner lot! This home features 36'' burlap shaker cabinetry, 18x18 tile, a large kitchen island, quartz counter tops, and 9' ceilings throughout. It also includes a soft water loop, dual pane low-E windows, multi-zone thermostat, window coverings and a smart home system. The exterior features front desert landscaping, a covered patio and generous backyard. Conveniently located off the 303, this community is near Costco, Safeway, and shopping. **Finishes may vary from sample photos and virtual tour.

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