A Tale of Two Markets: Inventory Mismatch Paints a More Detailed Picture

The inventory of existing homes for sale in today’s market was recently reported to be at a 3.6-month supply according to the National Association of Realtors latest Existing Home Sales Report. Inventory is now 7.1% lower than this time last year, marking the 20^th consecutive month of year-over-year drops.

Historically, inventory must reach a 6-month supply for a normal market where home prices appreciate with inflation. Anything less than a 6-month supply is a sellers’ market, where the demand for houses outpaces supply and prices go up.

As you can see from the chart below, the United States has been in a sellers’ market since August 2012, but last month’s numbers reached a new low.

Recently Trulia revealed that not only is there a shortage of homes on the market in general, but the homes that are available for sale are not meeting the needs of the buyers that are searching.

Homes are generally bucketed into three groups by price range: starter, trade-up, and premium.

Trulia’s market mismatch score measures the search interest of buyers against the category of homes that are available on the market. For example: “if 60% of buyers are searching for starter homes but only 40% of listings are starter homes, [the] market mismatch score for starter homes would be 20.”

The results of their latest analysis are detailed in the chart below.

Nationally, buyers are searching for starter and trade-up homes and are coming up short with the listings available, leading to a highly competitive seller’s market in these categories. Ninety-two of the top 100 metros have a shortage in trade-up inventory.

Premium homebuyers have the best chance of less competition and a surplus of listings in their price range with an 11-point surplus, leading to more of a buyer’s market.

“It leaves Americans who are in the market for a home increasingly chasing too fewer options in lower price ranges, and sellers of premium homes more likely to be left waiting longer for a buyer.”

 Lawrence Yun, NAR’s Chief Economist doesn’t see an end to this coming any time soon: 

“Competition is likely to heat up even more heading into the spring for house hunters looking for homes in the lower- and mid-market price range.”

Bottom Line

Real estate is local. If you are thinking about buying OR selling this spring, let’s get together to discuss the exact market conditions in your area.  Give me a call – J.P. Cook – 602-320-4253.

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2235 W Aston Drive San Tan Valley, AZ 85144

Open House

$565,000

4 Beds

2.5 Baths

2,553 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6711865

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

Seller may consider buyer concessions if made in an offer. Welcome to this beautiful property with a natural color palette that creates a serene atmosphere throughout the home. The kitchen features a center island for extra counter space, while the primary bedroom boasts a walk-in closet for ample storage. The primary bathroom offers a separate tub and shower, double sinks, and good under sink storage. Step outside to the fenced backyard, complete with a private in-ground pool and covered sitting area. Fresh interior paint and partial flooring replacement in some areas make this home move-in ready. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity!

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7682 W Saddlehorn Road Peoria, AZ 85383

New

$564,990

3 Beds

2 Baths

1,779 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6787471

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

''Welcome to the beautiful Marigold plan, offering 1,779 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. This charming home features 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a versatile den—perfect for a home office, library, or personal retreat. Ideal for modern living, the open-concept layout creates a seamless flow between the spacious great room, kitchen, and dining area. The heart of the home is the stylish kitchen, featuring sleek gray cabinetry, complemented by contemporary black hardware. A large white quartz island serves as both a functional workspace and an inviting gathering spot for gatherings and friends. The kitchen flows effortlessly into the great room, where a striking center sliding door opens to the outdoor space, blending indoor and outdoor living for a truly spacious feel. The elegant Spanish elevation enhances the curb appeal of this home, with its distinctive architectural features and timeless design. Inside, you'll find stunning Edgewood steel plank tile flooring throughout, offering both durability and beauty in every room. The spacious primary suite includes dual vanities and a walk-in shower. The convenient half-bath serves guests and adds to the functionality of the home. With a 2-car garage offering additional storage space, this home provides the perfect balance of style, comfort, and practicality. Whether you're working from home in the study, relaxing in the great room, or enjoying the outdoors through the sliding doors, the Marigold plan offers a warm, inviting atmosphere for all to enjoy.

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14946 W Smoketree Drive Surprise, AZ 85387

$564,990

4 Beds

2.5 Baths

2,468 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6786413

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

Ask about special financing with preferred lender! Homeowners will enjoy a spacious open floorplan where the Great Room, kitchen and dining room share a footprint and offer direct access to a covered patio through sliding glass doors. A versatile den is ideal for families who need a home office. Three secondary bedrooms are situated off the foyer, while the luxurious owner's suite is found at the back of the home. Photos are of a model home, not the actual home. A public report is available on the Arizona Department of Real Estate website.

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16687 W Saguaro Park Lane Surprise, AZ 85387

$564,990

4 Beds

3.5 Baths

2,664 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6742761

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

Up to 3% of base price or total purchase price, whichever is less, is available through preferred lender plus additional 2% of base price or total purchase price, whichever is less, is available to be used toward closing costs, pre-paids, rate buy downs, and/or price adjustments. This Parklane floorplan offers 4 bedrooms, 3.5 baths, a garage extension, a no-step shower, and 8' interior doors among its standout features. The home also includes built-in appliances, quartz kitchen counters, a gas stub in the kitchen for BBQs, and a laundry area equipped for a gas dryer.

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20239 W Catalina Drive Buckeye, AZ 85396

$564,990

4 Beds

2.5 Baths

2,561 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6655095

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

QUICK MOVE-IN HOME! MOVE INTO YOUR NEW HOME BEFORE THE HOLIDAYS! SPECIAL FINANCING WITH BELOW MARKET INTEREST RATES AVAILABLE! MOVE-IN PACKAGES AVAILABLE! PLEASE INQUIRE ABOUT THESE SPECIALS ON THIS QUICK MOVE-IN HOME AND OTHERS. ACT SOON BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE! MOVE-IN BEFORE THE HOLIDAYS! It's the beautiful Cinnabar with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 3 car tandem garage. Brick pavers at drive, walk and entry. Large multi slide door off the great room that leads out to the covered patio. Stainless steel gas appliance package with a 30'' cooktop, wall oven and glass canopy hood. Barnett ''Linen-off white'' cabinets with 42'' kitchen uppers, pull out trash drawer with two bins. DT Quartz countertops in evening gray in kitchen and at the enhanced kitchen island. Upgrade flooring includes EMS Beaumont 7x24 Bosso tile in all areas of the home except bedrooms & closets. Tile surrounds at tub and shower in owner's bath. Dual sinks at bath 2, gas stub for future BBQ, Pre-plumb for soft water and so much more. Please verify information with onsite agent. Thank you!

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18944 W Ocotillo Road Waddell, AZ 85355

$564,990

3 Beds

2 Baths

2,224 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6739345

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

QUICK MOVE-IN HOME! MOVE INTO YOUR NEW HOME BEFORE THE HOLIDAYS! SPECIAL FINANCING WITH BELOW MARKET INTEREST RATES AVAILABLE! MOVE-IN PACKAGES AVAILABLE! PLEASE INQUIRE ABOUT THESE SPECIALS ON THIS QUICK MOVE-IN HOME AND OTHERS. ACT SOON BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE! We're building this home at the beautiful Windrose community. It's the very popular Crimson with 3 bedrooms + flex space, 2.5 baths. Multi slide door that leads out to the extended covered patio. Large walk in shower at owner's bath. Stainless steel gas appliance package with a 30'' cooktop. Linen-off white cabinets with hardware, pull out trash drawer with two bins, 42'' kitchen uppers. AZT White sand granite countertops. Undermount single bowl kitchen sink. Upgrade flooring includes EMS Ravenna Olmo 7x24 plank tile in all areas of the home except bedrooms/closets and 5'' base boards and 3 1/4'' door casings. 8' tall garage door 2 openers & garage service door. Please verify all information with onsite agent. Thank you!

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9230 N 82nd Lane Peoria, AZ 85345

$564,990

6 Beds

3 Baths

3,156 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6785062

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

Welcome to this stunning two-story property in Peoria! Fully remodeled with fresh paint inside and out, this 6-bedroom, 3-bathroom home features a low-maintenance front yard, a 2-car garage with an RV gate, and exceptional flexibility for various living arrangements. The home boasts two fully equipped kitchens, two laundry areas (one on each level), and separate access to the upper floor from both inside and outside, making it perfect for short-term or long-term rental opportunities. This beautifully updated property is a must-see!

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1976 S Follett Way Gilbert, AZ 85295

$564,990

4 Beds

3.5 Baths

2,084 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6756086

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

This FANTASTIC 2018 home on a UNIQUE PREMIUM lot is full of UPGRADES! GOURMET kitchen w/stacked espresso stained cabinets, quartz countertops, stainless appliances including new dishwasher + island w/breakfast bar! Open concept great room w/wall of sliders! Head upstairs to 4 bedrooms (all with walk-in closets), 3 baths + a loft! Primary bedroom w/GORGEOUS ensuite bath w/BIG shower + built-in seat! Head outside to your EXTRA LARGE low maintenance backyard w/covered patio, pavers + faux grass! Carpets were cleaned, grout re-stained on the upgraded tile flooring + garage epoxy! This home is truly move-in ready!! Rare in this community to have a driveway! Don't miss this opportunity! Close to SO many wonderful restaurants/shopping including Agritopia, San Tan Village and MORE! WELCOME HOME! Upgraded options include hand-applied 95% smooth finish drywall, 5 baseboards, two-tone paint, wood-grain tile flooring, and plush carpet in the bedrooms. The 4th bedroom includes a full bath, and all bedrooms are equipped with spacious walk-in closets. Step outside to a meticulously landscaped backyard, complete with pavers, artificial turf, low-voltage lighting, and a stucco wall, perfect for relaxing or entertaining.

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260 S 165th Avenue Goodyear, AZ 85338

$564,990

3 Beds

3 Baths

2,456 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6739798

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

QUICK MOVE-IN HOME! MOVE INTO YOUR NEW HOME BEFORE THE HOLIDAYS! SPECIAL FINANCING WITH BELOW MARKET INTEREST RATES AVAILABLE! MOVE-IN PACKAGES AVAILABLE! PLEASE INQUIRE ABOUT THESE SPECIALS ON THIS QUICK MOVE-IN HOME AND OTHERS. ACT SOON BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE! It's the Amethyst floor plan with 3 bedrooms + flex space to use as you wish, 3 baths. 12'x'8' off the extended covered patio great for entertaining. Sonoma Maple Linen - off white cabinets with T-bar pull hardware in matte black. Kitchen has stainless steel gas appliance package with 30'' cooktop, wall oven, canopy hood, 42'' uppers with pull out trash drawer with two bins. AZT quartz Tawny quartz countertops in kitchen and and at enhanced kitchen island and owner's bath. Upgrade flooring includes Beaumont Olmo 7x24 plank tile in all areas of the home except for bedrooms and closets. Dual sinks at bath 2, soft water loop, 8' garage door with 2 openers and so much more. Please verify all information with onsite agent . Thank you!

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4226 N Turnberry Court Florence, AZ 85132

$564,900

2 Beds

2 Baths

2,039 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6746069

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

MAKE A SPLASH! Enjoy the tour of this stunning, nearly new ''Pursuit'' model in the highly sought after Legends community in Sun City Anthem at Merrill Ranch. Your new home offers an abundance of upgrades that include a chefs kitchen with beautiful and highly upgraded granite, stainless appliances, ample cabinets, large island, triple sliding glass door and soaring 10' ceilings. The primary bathroom offers the same upgraded granite countertops, large walk-in tiled shower and large walk-in closet. Additional upgrades include ceiling fans, beautiful flooring, surround sound and much more. The outdoor living space features a gorgeous swimming pool w/sheer descent water feature, expansive travertine decking w/gas fire pit and professionally manicured landscape. A MUST SEE HOME!! Take advantage of the Anthem Grille, The Poston Butte Golf Club, a learning center and all the festivities, activities and amenities a Sun City community has to offer. Remember you are buying a lifestyle that goes beyond the homes property lines.

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10345 E Rimrock Loop Gold Canyon, AZ 85118

$564,900

3 Beds

2 Baths

1,536 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6772762

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

Upgraded home, VIEWS and a Resort Style Backyard with a Newer Heated Pool! Superstition Mountain views from the front patio to the Dinosaur Mountain View in the backyard, this comfortable open floor plan has tons to offer with the well designed newer flooring, kitchen counters/cabinets, windows, bathrooms, Pool with heater, Alumiwood pergola, synthetic grass, paint, pavers, light fixtures, epoxy garage floors, garage cabinets, water softener, concrete patio coatings, and more. This home feels like new and it is maximized for relaxing! From this location here in Gold Canyon East with just a $24 per month HOA you are close to many great golf courses, walking trails, hiking, off road trails, mountain biking, local restaurants, and more. This home has options to be purchased furnished.

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854 S Del Rio Court Apache Junction, AZ 85120

$564,900

3 Beds

2.5 Baths

2,367 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6781016

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

This remodeled home is just like walking into a new build model home! It is situated in an intimate small neighborhood that is conveniently located to shopping and restaurants. Freshly painted interior in beautiful grey tones, updated custom kitchen cabinets and new granite counter tops plus all new flooring. New turf lawn front and back. An open floor plan that includes 12+ foot ceilings in great room and plantation shutters plus new blinds. Private owner's suite boasts large walk-in closet, separate tub/shower and dual sinks. Secondary bedrooms have convenient jack and Jill bath with individual vanities. Backyard is an entertainer's delight, built-in barbecue/bar area, fire pit, and full length patio. All one one level plus a three car garage!

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