A Tale of Two Markets: Inventory Mismatch Paints a More Detailed Picture

The inventory of existing homes for sale in today’s market was recently reported to be at a 3.6-month supply according to the National Association of Realtors latest Existing Home Sales Report. Inventory is now 7.1% lower than this time last year, marking the 20^th consecutive month of year-over-year drops.

Historically, inventory must reach a 6-month supply for a normal market where home prices appreciate with inflation. Anything less than a 6-month supply is a sellers’ market, where the demand for houses outpaces supply and prices go up.

As you can see from the chart below, the United States has been in a sellers’ market since August 2012, but last month’s numbers reached a new low.

Recently Trulia revealed that not only is there a shortage of homes on the market in general, but the homes that are available for sale are not meeting the needs of the buyers that are searching.

Homes are generally bucketed into three groups by price range: starter, trade-up, and premium.

Trulia’s market mismatch score measures the search interest of buyers against the category of homes that are available on the market. For example: “if 60% of buyers are searching for starter homes but only 40% of listings are starter homes, [the] market mismatch score for starter homes would be 20.”

The results of their latest analysis are detailed in the chart below.

Nationally, buyers are searching for starter and trade-up homes and are coming up short with the listings available, leading to a highly competitive seller’s market in these categories. Ninety-two of the top 100 metros have a shortage in trade-up inventory.

Premium homebuyers have the best chance of less competition and a surplus of listings in their price range with an 11-point surplus, leading to more of a buyer’s market.

“It leaves Americans who are in the market for a home increasingly chasing too fewer options in lower price ranges, and sellers of premium homes more likely to be left waiting longer for a buyer.”

 Lawrence Yun, NAR’s Chief Economist doesn’t see an end to this coming any time soon: 

“Competition is likely to heat up even more heading into the spring for house hunters looking for homes in the lower- and mid-market price range.”

Bottom Line

Real estate is local. If you are thinking about buying OR selling this spring, let’s get together to discuss the exact market conditions in your area.  Give me a call – J.P. Cook – 602-320-4253.

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6631 E Jasmine Street Mesa, AZ 85205

New

$549,900

3 Beds

2.5 Baths

1,858 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6787199

Property Type Single Family Residence

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Impeccably Remodeled Home with RV Gate, New Roof and No HOA! This stunning home offers modern updates, a spacious layout, and a prime location! Situated on a large lot with an RV gate, this property has been thoughtfully upgraded to provide both style and convenience. Step inside to find a welcoming interior featuring 3 generously sized bedrooms, 2.5 updated bathrooms, and a cozy family room complete with a charming fireplace. The kitchen and bathrooms have been fully remodeled with brand-new cabinetry, sleek quartz countertops, and elegant tile flooring. The primary ensuite is a true retreat, showcasing a beautifully tiled shower, ample storage, and private access to the backyard. Outdoors, enjoy the extended covered patio—perfect for entertaining or relaxing while overlooking your expansive backyard. Recent updates include a new roof (2024) and new A/C unit (2022) for added peace of mind. Conveniently located just minutes from the Loop 202, shopping, and dining, this home truly has it all!

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5117 N 81st Street Scottsdale, AZ 85250

New

$549,900

2 Beds

2 Baths

1,216 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6785248

Property Type Townhouse

Price Type --

Oasis by definition is a peaceful place in the desert or it can also be defined as 5117 N. 81st St. This designer remodeled, 2 bed/2 bath home with just over 1,200 sqft. is located in the best location in of all of Chateau De Vie and a heartbeat away from the popular attractions of Fashion Square and Old Town. This home boasts a luxury chefs kitchen highlighted by modern oak thin shaker cabinets, top tier quartz countertops with waterfall edges, and Stainless Steel Samsung Smart appliances. Luxury vinyl wood plank flooring and Berber carpet accentuate the space. Baths have been tastefully done. Take in many beautiful sunsets while relaxing on your covered patio. New dual pane windows, roof, water heater, and newer AC. Airbnb/STR approved. Don't miss out on this one of a kind property!

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13608 W Remuda Drive Peoria, AZ 85383

$549,900

3 Beds

3 Baths

2,258 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6781006

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

The price includes $20,000 for a rate buy-down and closing costs. This beautiful, move-in-ready home features a spacious great room that opens to a covered patio. The outdoor area boasts a heated pebble tech and travertine pool with a waterfall and jets, surrounded by palm and citrus trees. Inside, you'll find three generously sized bedrooms, each with its own full bathroom, along with a spacious dining room and plenty of storage. The main bedroom provides ample space for a sitting area or personal office, as well as a large walk-in closet and a super shower. The kitchen features granite countertops and white shaker cabinets, while plank tile flooring extends through high-traffic areas. An RV gate and a tandem four-car garage enhance the home's functionality.

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20391 N 53rd Avenue Glendale, AZ 85308

$549,900

3 Beds

2 Baths

1,589 SqFt

Status Active

MLS # 6779897

Property Type Single Family Residence

Price Type --

Welcome to your oasis nestled in the highly desirable Arrowhead Lakes! This stunning 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with a pool is situated on a premium corner lot. The vaulted ceilings create an airy atmosphere with tile and wood floors throughout the home. The kitchen features granite countertops, a nice size island, tile backsplash and stainless-steel appliances. Spacious primary en-suite has a walk-in closet, dual sinks, separate shower & roman style tub. Perfect for entertaining, the backyard features a beautiful pool with a new pool pump, a waterfall feature and a mountain view! Newer Roof & HVAC, two high-cost updates have been done! This sought after neighborhood is close to everything! Enjoy walks day or night, hiking trails nearby. Don't miss this one, move in before the holidays!

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